Crisis and Change in World Politics

This book investigates whether the severity of an interstate crisis determines its overall importance. The hypothesis to be tested is the crisis-as-earthquake model, whereby the importance of an international crisis is primarily a product of its severity, so that severity explains importance. This hypothesis is precisely the converse of that animating most international leaders. Being unscientific, statesmen tend to act in accordance with the belief that crises become severe due to the perceived significance of their consequences. But to take seriously any such notion of strategic foresight would lead us into the world of collusion and hidden designs, and it would embroil us in events which are not clearly crises but which may significantly alter the correlation of forces. Above all, it would take us away from the world of indices and causes, and submerge us in perceptions and intentions which are difficult to quantify.